How Trump’s Re-Election Could Shape U.S.-Africa Relations: Insights for African Security and Development

As news breaks of Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. President, African leaders have begun extending congratulatory messages, signaling a readiness to work with the new administration. Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa expressed interest in renewed diplomatic ties, while Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu voiced hope for “reciprocal economic and development partnerships.” But questions arise on what “Trump 2.0” may mean for Africa, particularly in areas like trade, investment, and security.

Trade and Investment Uncertainties

Trump’s first term saw initiatives such as Prosper Africa and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to support U.S.-Africa business engagements, investments, and infrastructure projects. These remain active, with substantial U.S. investments in initiatives like the Lobito Corridor rail line in southern Africa. However, Trump’s “America First” approach may signal a shift back to protectionism. His campaign promise of a universal 10% import tariff could pose challenges for African exporters, especially under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which may expire in 2025. Despite these concerns, Trump may keep some investments to maintain U.S. influence as China’s presence in Africa grows.

Foreign Aid and Pepfar Funding Under Threat

African nations rely on U.S. aid for critical support in health, democracy, and security. Trump’s previous attempts to reduce foreign aid were blocked by Congress, but with increased Republican influence, the next administration may face fewer obstacles. There are also concerns about the future of Pepfar, the prominent U.S. initiative combating HIV in Africa. Recent opposition in Congress raised concerns about its alignment with anti-abortion policies, creating uncertainty around its continuation.

Immigration Stance and African Migration Impact

Immigration policy under Trump 2.0 could pose new challenges for Africans seeking entry into the U.S. Trump’s previous stance included immigration restrictions for African countries, and his recent campaign highlighted plans to deport undocumented migrants. The number of African migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border has surged, creating fears of stricter policies.

Security, Conflict, and the Russian Influence in Africa

With Russia’s growing influence in African security through arms and military support, notably in Mali and Burkina Faso, the U.S. may seek to counter this trend. Trump’s unique stance on Russia, however, adds uncertainty. Although the Trump administration provided Nigeria with military aid against Boko Haram, further security partnerships with Africa remain speculative under his unconventional leadership style. In Sudan, where conflict has escalated over the past year, Trump’s “transactional” approach may lead to selective engagements based on U.S. interests.

For African security and development partners like VonFrederick Global Security Africa (VFGSA), Trump’s second term presents both risks and potential opportunities. His approach could lead to both beneficial support initiatives and cuts to critical programs, highlighting the need for a strategic response to evolving U.S. policy in the region.

Source: BBC